Re: post on -EV hedging
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and think a 5% edge at +100 is the same thing as a 5% edge at +250.
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This is true crockpot. You seem to be experienced, why do u size your bets according to your edge and don't consider your odds of winning?
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i do consider them. that change was made a long time ago, and i was only ignoring it at the time because i was betting about 1/10 kelly on average.
crazily enough, i'd like to thank ben for actually contributing to the thread, douche-y as his post was. he is still wrong, by the way, although i'm impressed that his kids' college fund and his wife's kidney constitute only 2% of his bankroll.
i never said you needed a 100% probability of a hedge being available to make this a good play. if you want to be really nitty, you can assign probabilities to all the realistic hedge odds you will be offered. that changes the numbers, not the analysis as a whole.
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