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Old 01-20-2007, 06:07 PM
theplux theplux is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 558
Default Re: NL25 AA vs drawy board

Yeah I didn't really look how much he had left. Puting me allin was basically puting him allin so I didn't type the exact amount of money he had left. What do you mean by that ? "Overbets are often not very effective in these cases." In that case I've a read, how could a overbet woudlnt be the best option here since I'm WA.

Lets put in that situation. Lets say the stacks are deeper I've 100$ he has 80$ (still NL25).

sameplay PF FLOP.
now on turn pot is 13.10$ I've 94$ left and he has 72$. Here if I bet the pot he will likely just call and c/f if a heart dosent come, making me win 26.10$. Here if I overbet the pot, not only I will make more money if a heart dosent come, but I'm giving him less odds to call with. If I bet 20$ in a 13.10$ and calls I'll win 53.10$(26$ net) 83% of the time. Which means I'll lose 26$ 17% of the time.
so on 17/100 -26$ = -442$
83/100 +26$ = 2158$
2158-442= +1716$

Betting the pot :
same thing but 19$
17x-19/100= -323$
83x19/100= 1577$
1577-323= +1254$
Difference:
1716-1254= +462$

Isn't the optimal play when your opponent is drawing to the river overbeting the pot? I'm maybe totally wrong because I'm thinking also about FoldEquity that I didn't add in my calculation. I just want to know if I'm right or wrong and why. These cases being if you've a solid read on your opponent and you're 99% sure that he's drawing.
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