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Old 09-20-2007, 02:35 PM
Caelallaiach Caelallaiach is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 128
Default Re: Can i get some insight 10nl

Okay, I just did some quick calculations under the assumptions:-

1) We hold a small pocket pair like 55.
2) Our opponent holds AA.
3) We check/fold if we miss.
4) We get all our chips in if we flop a set and get called everytime by the AA.

Then we need to win 10.6 times what we called preflop off our opponent, so close to your number of 11 to 1. I included set over set on the flop and the 8% suckout rate for the AA hitting an A on the turn or river.

Of course, our opponent will have AK and miss some of the time or QQ and the flop will come AK5 and in those cases we will not be able to stack our opponents. This, I assume is the basis of the 5-10 rule, if we are putting in 5% of what we might win in total if we can stack someone then it is a reasonable call. This assumes we can stack the raiser about 50% of the time, a reasonable assumption at micro stakes.
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