[bata2]

PokerStars $12/180 turbo, Big Blind is t6000 (4 handed)

<font color="#C00000">Hero (t84335)</font>
<font color="#C00000">UTG (t107022)</font>
Button (t46603)
SB (t32040)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t106422</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks?

Villain has been super agro since we've got shorthanded, doubling his stack twice on marginal holdings. He took the chip lead from me in the last orbit. At the time this hand was played I both expected this steal and perceived it to be weak prior to beeing dealt AK.

Some quick EV math: EV(fold) 378$. EV(call-win) 504$ EV(call-lose) 158$..... turns out that we need to win 57.2% of time for this call to be break-even.

Given a read that he is pushing Tight 88+,AJs+,AQ+ we have about ~50% equity.
Given a read that he is pushing Light we have about ~57% equity.
Given a read that he is pushing Lighter we have at least ~60% equity.

So,
How strong must a read be here, for you to call this push?
Would you take a slightly -EV or breakeven gamble for ~64% chips in play?
Would you pass a slightly +EV gamble that has ~40% chance for you to bust 4th with 2 shortstacks left ? Thoughts?