SageStats ensign_lee
Arizona -1.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan
The line started off at Detroit -1, where it stayed for about 12 hours, before somebody pounded the line and made it into Arizona -1. From there, the line has gone to Arizona -1.5. All the while, there have been bets pouring in on Detroit.
I think that there has been a public overreaction to the Lions dismantling of the Bills. A lot of things had to go right for them in that game for the score to end up the way that it did, and well...they happened. Going into a road environment, I think that they'll lose some of that edge. Plus, the Lions haven't been the best road team and so I expect their performance to dip. Also, I believe that they may go into this game a little overconfident.
But bottom line is the reverse line movement with about 75-80% of the bets on Detroit. Plus, when I first saw the line, I was like "What? Detroit is a 1 pt. dog? Obviously, the play is Detroit", which usually ends up badly for me. hah.
Chicago -3.5 (-105)
2 units at BetTrojan
Unlike 96% of the country, I watched the Houston Texans/Oakland Raiders game last week. I saw firsthand Ron freaking Dayne put up over 100 yards on this defense. I saw the offensive coordinator of the Raiders completely unable to adjust to our star CB Dunta Robinson going out with injury. No in-game adjustments + pretty terrible running defense = a losing football team. Even with CHicago's woes, I believe that they can take care of business here in Oakland. The public being on this with me doesn't worry me quite that much, since the line moved the way you would have expected it to, from -3 to -3.5. Shame I didn't get that -3...