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Old 11-15-2007, 02:22 PM
BHokie1 BHokie1 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Championship Week
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

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The math of the call is pretty straight forward and honestly kind of boring.

If you want to think outside of ICM math and look at how the bubble plays out, DD hit on it right here.

If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

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It's an interesting idea, but the fact is that T9 doesn't run as well against his range. He has a few dominating hands in the mix. I'm not sure what the exact math is, I wonder what my EV loss is if I call T9 here.

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I don't think you made this post to determine if the AK was a +/- EV call, it's -EV. A lot of people can do a lot of math and argue how bad of a call it is or how it's not that bad, but why go outside ICM. I can only think of two reasons, looking forward to how the bubble plays out, or metagame.

So if you are looking outside of ICM for how the bubble plays out, I still think it's a bad call because you are acting before he does (first to push) on every hand on the bubble except when he is UTG. As pointed out by Ditch Digger.

If you are looking to make a metagame call to tighten his range for future STTs, AK doesn't tighten his range very much, but T9 might. As pointed out by Pudge.

No matter how I look at it, I don't think it's a good call.
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