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Old 10-13-2007, 05:06 PM
palman palman is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 497
Default Re: 2-7 Hand 100-200 at the Bellagio

I don't mind your line that much. JR could well be dead, and if you raise after the first draw and JR is down to one and hits on the 2nd draw, he's going to c/r Rob off of most all his holdings after the 2nd draw.

The big downside to your line is that even #2 should stop raising as soon as you come alive for a raise, so you prevent yourself from winning a truly huge pot.

Given how the action actually went, you gained a small bet from JR, but missed a small bet from Rob since I imagine Rob would have called you down.

So lets assume JR would have folded if you had raised after the first draw, and misses on the 2nd draw and folds (what actually happenned) You break even with your line.

Lets assume JR would have folded but then gets down to one and misses, you gain an extra bet.

Lets assume JR draws on the 2nd draw and c/r's, you stand to gain alot of extra action since Rob might 3 bet to isolate you.

Lets assume JR goes 2,1, and leads into the field, you will gain an extra 3.5-5.5 big bets from your line.

Take the approximate possibilities of all of these occurances, compare it to how much value you gain if JR doesn't fold after the first draw unimproved, value gained if JR gets down to one and would have called (might not be that much, since JR is going to check-raise the 2nd draw and drive rob out pretty much every time) and the chances Rob gets in a raising war with you on any street (by either trying to overrep his hand, drive JR out, or he actually got dealt a solid pat hand) And it's probably fairly close.

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