Cool. I did an EV calc of my flop CR and he has to fold 25% of the time for it to be a profitable move. That is assuming he has a dry AA hand. Should villain ever be folding AA to my CR on this board?
The maths:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Player Folds:
+$51.0
Player Calls:
62% * (-86.5) = -53.6
38% * (+98.5) = +37.4
= -16.2
Player Folds 100x% of the time, then:
EV(push) = (51)*x + (-16.2)(1-x)
= 51x -16.2 + 16.2x
= 67.2x - 16.2
16.2 = 67.2x
x = 16.2 / 67.2
x = 24%
</pre><hr />