[ymu]

If MP is decent and thinks UTG is bad/loose enough to call, then it's a pretty clear fold. If UTG was raising and folding a lot, I might think that MP just had a decent enough hand to push him out with - but it still has to be decent enough to survive all the hands behind him so it doesn't loosen his range much at all, and UTG might wake up with a real hand.

I think you're too deep to risk it here. If you could put a range on the both of them (for raising and for calling the two AIs for UTG) you could check what ICM says. I'm pretty sure it isn't a call against most reasonable ranges until you're a lot shorter than 14BBs.