[spider]

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Don't invest unless you can explain why people are taking the other side.

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I think you are underestimating the scope of this. The "other side" is a very large number of people with all kinds of ideas, motives, fears, etc. I mean, can you even predict what your wife/GF is going to say or do on any given day? But you are going to predict the collective actions of millions of other investors? Granted, there are a relatively small number of institutional investors who matter much more than anybody else, but predicting their actions systematically is still close to impossible.

Were you able to predict the Nasdaq would peak in 2000 and US residential housing would peak in 2006? Lots of people saw those for bubbles (and lots said they weren't bubbles) but getting the timing right is really, really difficult. Also, it seems like maybe you are assuming the existence of systematic mispricings over time, which I would dispute. Although US residential housing was and is overpriced, I don't think this is something you can expect to guide you over time. Maybe in 10 years it will be fairly priced or underpriced. If you know, please share with us!

BTW, you really should pick up some books about Buffett if you care to keep using him as an example. With all due respect you are not really characterizing his methods all that accurately. And in particular, the structure and size of Berkshire Hathaway gives him certain advantages and disadvantages that make him a poor comparison case for ordinary investors.