Thread: when?
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Old 06-15-2007, 04:29 PM
Oink Oink is offline
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Default Re: when?

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The answer to your original question is that you should often bet when you don't expect your opponent to fold any better hands and you expect to lose more than half the time. This occurs when you are OOP whenever the pot is big enough and your hand is good often enough that, if you check the river, it will be more profitable to call than to fold, but the villain will check behind most of the hands you beat.

For example, there are 8 BB in the pot on the river. The villain in the hand will not call a bet with a busted draw and will not bluff a busted draw. His range of hands is such that 70% of his made hands beat your hand and 30% lose to your hand. If you check to him, he will value bet his top 80% of his made hands. Note that you are still good 1-in-8 times when he does bet, so check/calling is better than check/folding. However, if you bet out on the river, he will call with all made hands and raise only the top 10%. (Obviously, you fold if raised, but even if you do call the raise, bet/calling is still better than check/calling or check/folding!)

This type of situation comes up fairly often. It becomes dicier if you feel your opponent might bluff (or mistakenly value raise worse hands) often enough that you have to call the river (or if you should fold the river but are likely to call for psychological reasons).

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ignore my post, this is what I was trying to say [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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I feel pwned

nh sir!
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