Re: Interesting hand?
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I know you keep saying "you win at the top and lose at the bottom" but it's just an aphorism. It isn't exactly distilled truth.
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Let me rephrase. "Good players win at the top and lose at the bottom." And I do believe if you researched your own results you would see it is "distillable."
678 is just not a playable hand except in special circumstances. Like every card showing is a 9 or worse. Or you are stealing. And it's a crappy steal hand. I never said A2J was better - but on the whole I'd rather be the bring-in you are stealing from than holding 678.
Let's say you have (86)7 vs my xxJ and the hand goes like this:
8673
xxJ6
Are you betting? I am calling.
86739
xxJ68
I will bet or raise here.
867394
xxJ685
I'm still calling. I might raise if you take your time deciding. I would think you might have me beat - or maybe not. If I know you play 8s, I have that noted. But I have the draw. I might have the hand right now. I might not. But this isn't about me and my Jack - it's about you not having an exit from this hand. If you get an A or a 2, you can make that 7 and beat me if I don't get a 4 or a 3.
The problem is, when you are in a steal position, I will not give you credit for much better than a 9 or 8. I might even consider that I have the better hand. When your 678 becomes very marginal, you won't get an A2J to fold, you'll have to keep putting money in. I'd say it's high time we both caught a brick. Let's see what happens then:
867394J
xxJ685x<--it's a Q
What do you think you'd think? Would you really put an anonymous opponent on A2 in the hole? When you have gone so far you will call when I bet? When are you laying down 87643 on the river?
See, it isn't about probabilities here; this hand simply does not play well. Having a big brick is great, it provides a lot of getting out options when you catch more small cards. The J is going to lose less more often and win more less often. But it is very likely to win a lot more.
It's pretty standard in Razz to call when you are the bring-in with some good cards in the hole and there is only one raiser. There must be a reason for that.
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