Re: What % of the time are we beat here?
Bet more on turn, like .85 and river is a call. I dont think hes going to call a shove with a lone jack or queen. We are getting almost 6:1 so there is no folding here. Whether you "know" he isnt bluffing or not means nothing really. He could be value betting K9/KT often enough to dictate calling. He could think QJ is good now, who knows, but the odds are too good. I have made my fair share of crying calls getting amazing odds, thinking there is no way I am good but have to call because of the math. Guess what happens, villain shows some hand that you would have never thought he would do that with and you just collected a pot where you wouldve folded if you trusted your gut over the math.
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