[Mr. Now]

OK, here is what I mean:

The short trade of say, QQQQ (QQQ at that time) before March 2000 is in fact leading out with a prediction. In this case, a valid prediction. The OP suggests "shorts in 1999". That is 3 months too early.

Why do that, when you can wait for price and volume to confirm your theories?

If you lead out in any size, you have to seriously consider covering when the position goes 11% or more against you. The alternative is to add to that losing position. How smart is that? To reduce risk, you must reduce size or get out completely.

Why put your self in that spot when you can just wait for Market to confirm your idea in price and volume before you act?

The trade idea is not stupid obviously. But initiating it in any size in 1999 clearly is.

Is 1999 the perfect moment? Clearly not. If you wait for (what you perceive to be) the perfect moment, the trade has a chance to work from the start. This is essential to confidence, and confidence is essential to long-term success.

Trading is a mind game. It is wise to consider the non-cash risks you are taking with your state of mind when you put on utterly reckless trades like this one.

Shorting is a game for professionals only. It is definitely not the mirror opposite of trading long.