Re: KK 3-way capped pot. Ace flops. Your plan?
As a default , especially against a 60/15 "donk" I think it's a definite call down.
Let's say your range here is
AK,AA,KK,QQ and BB's range is AJs, AQ+, KQs, 99+
Remove one ace and one nine from the distributions because it's on the board and the probability that ONE of you doesn't have an ace or 99 is.
You = 12 AK, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ therefore ~ 12/27 times you dont have an ace.
BB = 3 AJs, 4 KQs, 12 AK, 12 AQ, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 6 JJ, 6 TT, 3 99
~ 28/61 times BB doesnt have an ace
I don't want to go through the math of the card depdencies , so I'll assume indepence of distribution.
A little less (because of card removal effects ) than 288/1539 ,19% of the time neither of you will have an ace.
So If you guys fold your non ace hands
EV = P(!Ace)*(Potsize) - P(Ace)*(Bet)
= .19*12 - .81*1 = +1.47 SB
For an immediate profit of Almost a BB each time this scenario arises. This is much too high and exploitable. This was also considering a 0% equity which will often not be the case , for example when he's semi-bluffing or caught a peice of the board.
Therefore it cannot be correct to fold KK here against an unknown. Making it so you fold KK 0% on the flop, x% on the turn, and y% on the river, and call down AK to the river and raise it. This way he is indifferent to bluffing. This is probabily close to the optimal strategy. But as a default I'd rather just call down 100% until you get a read.
Against certain very tight/predictable opponents I'd peel 0 , 1 or 2 streets and fold but this is rare and requires a good read.
I like raising never.
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