[Oink]

Assuming a tight range of TT, AQs, AKo.

There are 12 AK and 16 JJ+ that valuebets

There are 3 TT and 4 AQs.

You get 10.5:1 and need to be good 8.7%. This means he needs to bet TT and AQs with p % probability where p solves

p*7/(p*7 + 28) = 8.7%

Implying p = 2.4/6.4 = 37.5%

If I am doing those calcs correctly I would say close but prolly fold against a tight range.



Now assume a range of 99, AJs, AQo

He is valuebetting 12 AK, 16 JJ+, 2 AJs and 3 99. So as before he needs to bet TT and AQo (there are 3 + 16 = 19 of those) with p prob where p solves

p*19/(p*19 + 33) = 8.7%

p = 2.9/17.4 = 16.7%


One problem about the loose range is that he might check behind AJs and QQ.


Anyhoo. Against a nit its close but prolly a fold. Against a loos'ish capper I'd call


EDIT for the 99 bummer