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Old 10-01-2006, 06:40 AM
Lori Lori is offline
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Default Re: 3+1 NFL Challenge - 2006: Week 4

423/424 over 33.5
421
409/410 under 40.5
403


Not terribly happy with my picks this week, I wanted the Colts, but I'm scared of a backdoor cover with the silly Jets rallies, and the Chargers just looked worse and worse as the week went on.


$400 Browns/Raiders over 33.5

This does seem to be a decent pick. The Raiders are just terrible and I expect the Browns to score freely(ish) against them. With the Raiders being at home and coming off a bye, I suspect they will have had chance to get some kind of offense going, when you're trying for over 33.5, you don't need it to be amazing, just need to find something, a couple of tricky plays, a little luck, anything. I like this pick because all of the unknown variables are on our side.

$300 Jacksonville

Very simply put, the Jags have looked really good this season, the Skins haven't. (Translation: I haven't done enough research) I don't like opposing Washington as a rule as they seem to produce their better performances against better sides, but i think that Jax will have too much for this one.

$200 9ers/Chiefs under 40.5

I'm a bit worried about the Chiefs running riot in this one late game, but then the Chiefs haven't shown many signs of running riot in anything this season. A tentative third pick here to back up my half time pick. Not really very keen on it though.
I do think that people are focussing too much on the Chiefs accident prone and so far awful offense and not giving them enough credit for keeping scores reasonably low considering they don't look after the ball. Fancy them to cover the spread too, but I think this is the better of the two picks and I like to only pick each game once.

$100 Chargers -2.5

The more I look at this, the more I really don't like it, however it's in the "If it wins and I don't pick it, I'll feel stupid" slot.
I think that they'll have to pass the ball more today, and that's untested waters against a real defense.

Edit: YTD 9-3 +2000 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Lori
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