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Old 10-03-2006, 09:57 AM
creedofhubris creedofhubris is offline
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Default HU NL article comments

Here are some specific points where I think the analysis is unreliable.

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2. There are certain types of opponent where it is not necessarily advantageous to be deep-stacked. The most obvious is the hyper-aggressive maniac: it is very difficult to tell when this type of player is betting with a real hand and when he is bluffing, and so you will often have to make raises and calls with marginal hands.

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While it is true that it can be difficult to decide whether someone is bluffing, if your opponent is given to pushing light, you lose a lot of potential EV by calling allin with a shorter stack.

If you are confident in your reads then you should be able to make big calls with marginal hands; it's an essential skill in headsup NL and working around it by playing allin shortstack poker is not going to maximize your earn.


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Hand 1

Hero ($55.20) is SB/B with 7c2s

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain checks.

I have a horrible hand, but as Dan Harrington notes in his excellent book Harrington on Hold ‘Em Volume II, you will always have the odds to call from the small blind with any two cards. In any case, I am not calling here because of the strength of my cards, rather for information. I want to know whether opponent will attack my limps, and if not how aggressive he is prepared to be out of position (OOP) post flop.

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WRT limping in with 72o: keep in mind that in a cash game the blinds don't increase, and your M value is astronomical, so Harrington's advice on squeezing dubious value out of even more dubious hands is less important. It's reasonable to look for info about how active your opponent is postflop, but if you happen to ever show down a hand like this, then you are going to provoke a correct countermeasure from your opponent: he will start raising your limps. You don't want to encourage this behavior.

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Hand 2

Hero ($53.20) is BB with Ac7s

Villain ($201.80)

Preflop: Villain raises to $6, Hero calls

Flop: 4s 4d Tc (pot $12)

Hero bets $6

Villain calls.

Turn: 2d (4s 4d Tc) (pot $24)

Hero checks, Villain checks


River: Qc (4s 4d Tc 2d) (pot $24)

Hero bets $14

Villain folds

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In the analysis of the hand, hero makes it clear that he thinks he's bluffing. However, he has a holding that is capable of being shown down here, an Ace high, which will split the pot with most other aces. Furthermore, hero's bet will often fail to fold out an opponent's ace high on this sort of board, and it will almost certainly be called by any paired hand. In other words, hero's "bluff" with a medium-strength made hand will only fold out worse hands, so it's of minimal value.



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Hero ($60) is SB/B with Ac 6d

Villain ($193.60)

Preflop: Hero raises to $6, Villain calls

Flop: 6c 7c 5c (pot $12)

Villain checks, Hero checks

Monotone flops are another good chance to pick up information about an opponent. How tight or passive are they in the face of a very scary board? Here, I have picked up middle pair – usually a strong hand (approximately equivalent to flopping top pair with a reasonable kicker in a full ring game). However, I check behind for two reasons. First, if he has no clubs, he probably won’t bet and my pair may well be good enough to win this raised pot at showdown; and second, a flopped flush would probably check here, hoping to pick off a continuation bet. Indeed, if he does hold a flush, a check is right not only because it saves me a bet, but also because if a fourth club comes, he will almost certainly have to pay off my nut flush.



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I disagree with most of this analysis. First of all, author demonstrates paranoia concerning a possible opponent flopped flush. Throughout various hand analyses he discusses flush draws as if they're a very likely part of opponents' holdings, but they're just not.

In this hand, the author has flopped a pair + nut flush draw, in position, vs. a passive foe. First of call, author needs to recognize that this is a very good holding. This is a hand where it is important to get money in, because hero has huge equity vs just about any holding and yet doesn't want a cheap overcard to fall off and pair his opponent. Hero has a shot at stacking opponent if opponent has a big club and chases it. In sum, hero needs to bet here pretty much 100% of the time, and can gauge from opponent's actions on turn or river whether his pair is any good.

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Hand 7

Hero ($43.80) is SB/B with 6h 3h

Villain ($207.80)

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain checks.

Flop: 3s Ks 7s (pot $4)

Villain bets $2

This is very interesting, to have another monotone flop so soon after the last. I can rely on his memories of the previous hand being fresh in his mind.

Hero raises to $4, Villain calls

It is very rare that a made flush would bet here, because I will almost certainly fold, so I rule that out for the moment. Therefore, suspecting weakness, I make a bet which will look most like I am attempting to extract value with a made flush. His call is in keeping with my “cynic” read – note that with each extra piece of evidence, my reads become more and more reliable and I am more prepared to back them up with significant bets.

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A minraise to set up a bluff on the next street is somewhat novel, but giving the opponent a chance to draw a cheap card to continue on is an error. If you think the opponent is weak, raise enough to knock him out, don't play pattycake.

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Hand 9



Hero ($54.60) is SB/B with 5h 7s

Villain ($195.80)

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain raises to $6, Hero calls

It has now become clear that he has a standard raise size, so there is no further point trying to glean information from this – it is now only relevant information if he were to put in a minimum or oversize raise. My call is a little loose, but I have position and I have been fairly successful so far at taking pots away without card strength.

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Opponent has to be incredibly bad for this call to be profitable. 75o misses the flop the vast majority of the time. If villain bets any flop, as most people do after raising from the big blind, then the 75 is just not going to hit often enough to be useful.


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Hand 11

Hero ($61.60) is SB/B with 3d 3h

Villain ($187.80)

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain checks.

I was expecting another raise preflop here after my fold on the previous hand, and had intended to limp-re-raise as a means of stopping that in its tracks. He checks behind though – a shame, because low pocket pairs play fairly well preflop but are still hard (even HU) to play with confidence post flop unless you hit your set.

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What does it mean of a hand that it "plays fairly well preflop?" This is meaningless phrasing. 72o plays pretty well preflop, you fold it.

If a hand is difficult to play with confidence postflop, then it should be played in such a manner that is unlikely to get to a flop, i.e. raised.


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Hand 14

Hero ($63) is BB with As 7d

Villain ($185.60)

Preflop: Villain raises to $6, Hero calls.

Flop: 3s Js 9s (pot $12)

Hero checks, Villain checks

Turn: 9c (3s Js 9s) (pot $12)

Hero checks, Villain bets $2, Hero calls.


Turn: 9c (3s Js 9s) (pot $12)

Hero checks, Villain bets $2, Hero calls.

A paired and flushed board? Enough to scare anyone, but I’m still confident my flush would be good if it hits. An interesting subplot here is Villain’s use of the minimum bet – last time he used it, I read it for weakness and forced him to fold. An interesting bluff or double bluff situation therefore arises – is he actually strong, because last time he was weak? Or is that what he expects me to conclude, and so he is actually weak still? I start to hope that one way or another, I get to see his cards at showdown to determine how many levels he is capable of thinking on.

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Here is another hand where hero flops a very strong draw and chooses to play it in a manner to minimize the size of the pot. Hero needs to force his opponent to make decisions; reads are useful but so are pots! If hero had fired the turn for the pot, or check/raised, or done something, then hero would've had a shot at doubling up rather than just settling for a $20 win.

Noticing a tendency to minbet, and then wondering how many levels an opponent is capable of thinking of, is the wrong way to approach a minbet; a minbet in a raised pot is a sign of total poker incompetence, and THAT is the message that hero should be taking from this encounter: that he is dealing with an utter fish.

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Hand 15

Hero ($85) is SB/B with 6h 7h

Villain ($161.60)

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain checks.

More backchat about chasing and being a fish comes my way between hands, so I expect another bout of aggression here, and would be very happy to call a raise with 7-6 suited in position. However, it does not arrive.

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If hero wants to play 7-6 suited in position in a big pot, he should raise with it himself. It's just that simple.

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Flop: 8c 6d 4s (pot $4)

Villain checks, Hero checks.

I have a perfectly decent hand to show down, and a gutshot draw which will probably be paid off if it hits. I elect to keep the pot small, and check behind.


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Why is hero thinking of small pots? That's generally bad advice in NL hold'em cash games.

Hero seems unaware of the strength of his holding here (middle pair plus straight draw) vs. a passive foe who will telegraph his own hand strength quite clearly. This is a bet, bet, and bet some more situation, since opponent seems too passive to bluff.

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Hand 17

Hero ($84) is SB/B with Jd Tc
Villain ($162.40)

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain checks.

Flop: 8h 2s 4h (pot $4)

Villain checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 9c (8h 2s 4h) (pot $4)

Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: 3h (9c 8h 2s 4h) (pot $4)

Villain checks, Hero checks.

This is a fairly inconsequential hand

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No, it's not. Hero's check on the turn is pretty poor. He's got a nut draw, two overs, and villain is very passive; a bet is likely to take it down. With 14 cards to improve him, hero's happy to take it down with a bet but loses nothing if villain calls.



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Hand 24

Hero ($91.60) is BB with 3c 9s

Villain ($153)

Preflop: Villain folds

A real pattern now and I make a mental note to start respecting his calls and raises from the button a bit more than I have so far.

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This is 5 hands after villain has limped in with 32o, so hero's perception of villain's standards is off. Villain is merrily limping in with trash just like hero is.

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Hand 27

Hero ($96.40) is SB/B with 7s 6s

Villain ($148)

Preflop: Hero calls, Villain raises to $6, Hero calls.

A raise from the big blind, which could be a big hand based on his recent history of passivity. I make a slightly loose call with suited connectors, shooting for a big pot from a hand he gets himself attached to.

Flop: Kh 6d 2h (pot $12)

Villain checks, Hero checks.


Turn: 7d (Kh 6d 2h) (pot $12)

Villain bets $6, Hero calls.

Things take a turn (sorry) for the better as I hit two pair – although note I should never have been allowed to get here. He now decides to make a delayed continuation bet. I decide that now is a good time to exploit the vulnerability to slow playing which I detected earlier, and just call, hoping he will bluff on the river as he did on Hand 20.

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Hero has chosen a very poor hand to trap with. Middle two pair is easily counterfeitable, and this is now a board with two flush draws on it. It is a bad mistake not to raise here and get money into the pot, allowing a larger bet on the river as well.

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Hand 28

Hero ($130.40) is BB with Qh Ts

Villain ($112)

Preflop: Villain calls, Hero checks.

Sensing again the chance of a big pot in the near future, I am happy to revert to “playing nice” out of position, even though my hand is strong enough for a raise. I want to keep this one on the hook.

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Hero's confused about the method of generating a large pot. The way to generate a large pot is to start with a preflop raise. Limps rarely generate big pots.
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