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Old 08-20-2007, 08:02 PM
jstill jstill is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: downtown portsmouth
Posts: 3,641
Default Re: stupid statistical rant inspired by donks comment while playing li

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Why would someone that truly understands the game berate someone for calling with absolutley horrible odds? Thats what you want people to do!

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exactly. If you aren't seeing players make objectively -EV plays u arent in a good game, thats what you should hope to surround yourself with and thus prepare for the inevitable variance. If people aren't doing these things thats when you should complain because poker has no sustainability when everyone plays as well as you since its a negative sum game (due to rake tips ect).

Beyond even that, the other reason you can't complain about bad beats (which is a point noone ever acknowledges) is that they serve as the function in statistics that allows for the regression to the mean. Think about it, everytime u win a pot where you were a x% to win u dont win x u win the whole pot. So bad beats have to come along to make up for all those times you run better than your expected value but you just think of that as the norm because " you deserved to win the pot", which is true but really ur skylansky bucks are all ur entitled to, not the whole pot.

Variance is a crazy thing, even in the very long run players of the same skill level can have very different results, its just a fact of standard deviation and the bell curve in statistics. But eventually the law of large numbers takes over, and in the end your results are the summation of your decisions over your poker playing career of millions and millions of hands.

I like how Ed Miller stated it, though I might mess this up, if you follow bank roll management and keep trying to get better in the long run no bad beat, short of being struck by lightning, can hold you back from success in poker. Even if you haven't had the kind of success you may have hoped for or expected in the short term as long as youre a better poker player at the end of that period of time, you've succeeded and you'll be better for the upcoming year and hopefully reap the benefits of your skylansky bucks in the end.
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