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Old 07-19-2006, 06:30 PM
geormiet geormiet is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 2,237
Default Re: Adjusting to Perennial Cold-Callers

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Five-way action just isn't good enough to justify paying two bets to see a flop with a small pair.

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Alan,
Although I'm not fond of open-limping or playing small pairs up front, I think a table where there's five-way action for two bets is exactly the right situation to play those baby pairs. You've just got to be able to get away from the hand if you don't flop a set.

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The odds of flopping a set are 7.5:1 against. When you figure the likelihood of flopping a set and it not holding up, it's more like 10:1 against. In order to profitably pay two bets before the flop with a small pair in a five-way pot, one has to hope to extract five big bets in post-flop action from the other players in the hand.

For a single bet in a multiway pot, it's easy to get the needed postflop action to turn a profit. It is rather less so when the preflop investment is two bets.

Bringing it back to the cold-calling topic, suppose UTG raises and gets three cold callers. You're on the button holding 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Do you call here? Really?

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The times you win and lose with a set are combined together to give you an overall expectation. You don't need to "adjust 7.5:1 to 10:1 to account for the times you lose. I have idea how you came up with needing to earn 5 big bets back postflop...there is nearly that in the pot already.

Not calling two with any pair knowing there are at least 5 players in is ludicrous.
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