Re: preflop
[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see a range against which calling 99-TT are profitable.
[/ QUOTE ]
We're risking $176 to win $224, so we're getting about 1.25-to-1 odds. That means that we only have to win about 45% of the time against his range. Against "AQ+, JJ+" we're winning over 39% of the time. Add in even a tiny chance that he's frustrated and pushing lighter or bluff-pushing and we've got a safely +EV call with 99.
Plus, this isn't a classical steal situation, where villain might smooth-call with drawing hands; this is a blind vs. blind situation where pushing preflop saves all sorts of unpleasant decisions postflop and puts his opponent to a nasty decision preflop where he can make all sorts of FTOP mistakes. Also, most villains are going to be hesitant to four-bet push AA, hoping to get more value out of a call and a flop CRAI.
Still, it's awfully hard to talk myself into calling with 99 here; I think that's why four-betting all-in is such a powerful tool.
|