Re: Overcars again...AQs
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Why would you want to donk or check-raise with your overcards? He will never fold a better hand, so there is no sense in bluffing. There is no option but to check and call here.
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Well, I said that if I want to make a stand vs his AK/AQ range I'd c/r flop (not donk it) and lead the turn representing a made hand like 88-JJ.
I think that would look consistent from the Villain's point of view. We just called his 3-bet preflop. Then c/r on a flop that is sure to miss a big part of his 3-bet range (apart from the pocket pairs of course).
If he now happens to hold AK/AQ (if either folds we benefit nicely, btw), he has a difficult call to make on the turn getting 6.75:1 with his overcards - which may or maybe not both be live (we might be screwing him with AA/KK or hold QQ, from his point of view, and there's the FD too). I'm not expecting him to fold a better hand on the flop to a c/r.
The downside of choosing this line is that the Villain could also think we do this as a semibluff with a FD (but I think this is not as likely as it'd be if this hand was shorthanded), he could have a made hand, or in fact the FD.
I'd think a Villain with those stats would raise AA-QQ on the turn the latest (to protect vs a FD), but just might sometimes go to call-down mode with TT-JJ that we have 6 outs against anyway.
If we get to river UI with this line and Villain hasn't raised I c/f as I believe him being on a FD hand that he'd also fold to a river bet is too small (A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]+). Villain's decision to go to showdown happens on the turn.
And I'm not saying this is the best option nor default option in this spot - but it is an option that can be justified and might be a good play sometimes to mix it up and especially if the Villain is tight-weakish (this Villain doesn't look weakish).
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