Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
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Given his range of hands (AJ, AA, KK, QQ, maybe KJ along with of course the JJ and TT), I think 63 kills his range. Some thoughts on the turn:
It's a 4-bet cap. If we are ahead, we need to charge the drawer. In addition, we need to charge PJ to draw to counterfeits and better two pair etc.
If PJ does have a set, he will raise on the river, and I am perfectly willing to fold to a river raise.
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If that really is his range and it's all weighted equally, then capping is clearly right - I just think that his range is weighted more towards the hands that crush us than the ones that we beat (i.e. he won't 3-bet every time with one pair, but he'll always do it with a set). Letting him draw to his 5-8 outer is tempered by the times that we are way behind and save a bet (or two bets, if the river comes bad and we can just check-fold), and the times that the river is a blank and we make the same amount (by calling twice) as capping the turn and leading.
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