[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 67/11/1 over 43 hands.
Full Tilt Poker, $2 + $0.25 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 40/80 Blinds, 3 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
Hero (CO): 1,685
BTN: 2,665
BB: 4,650
Pre-Flop: (80) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to 240</font>, BTN folds, BB calls 160
Flop: (480) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets 480</font>, Hero ???
[/ QUOTE ]
That flop is fairly likely to have hit him, especially given his loose preflop play and the fact that a passive player is now betting.
$EV_fold = 19.49%
$EV_push-win = 36.29%
$EV_push-lose = 0%
$EV_push_nocall = 28.55%
You're probably about a 2:1 underdog if called, so I'll say your equity in that case is 36.29/3 = 12.10%. This means if you get called (19.49-12.10)/(28.55-12.10) = 45% of the time, it breaks even. Is he going to fold more than 45% of the time calling 965 into 2405? I don't think he'll fold unless he's totally bluffing, and I see this as being unlikely given his stats. It's probably best to respect the donk bet here, as much as it sucks to have to fold a good hand.
...and no I don't shove preflop but I don't really think it's a bad idea.