Re: 2-4NL - When do I take a stand?
The math behind shoving all-in:
Pot size: 96+84 = 180
Left to Shove: 396-46 = 350
Final Pot Size: 396*2 = 792
Equity when called (included 2 combos of A8s that represent tilt calls):
Board: Jd 8c 7c
Hand 0: 28.324% { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 71.676% { 77+, AcKc, AcQc, AJs, AcTc, Ac9c, Ah8h, As8s, KcQc, KJs, KcTc, QJs, QcTc, JTs, Jc9c, Jd9d, T9s, AJo }
Let X=P(Fold),
EV(Shove)=0= 180*X + (1-X)(792*0.28-350)
X = 41.6%
His calling range represents 6.90% of total combos, so he needs to be cbetting a total of:
6.90%/(1-41.6%) = 11.82%
Now if there ever was a board to check give-up on for a PFR, this would be it, so i don't think he's c-bet folding enough here for a shove to be profitable. This changes if he's the type to insta-cbet all flops after 3-betting preflop.
At the same time, we have too much hand to fold, so I agree that call and reevaluate is the best option.
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