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Old 10-01-2007, 10:44 PM
electrical electrical is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 650
Default Re: Is this a donk move?

I don't think raising is necessarily best, but it's worth considering. Let's assume you need to beat a pair of Aces at the moment to win.

If hero raises on Fourth and loses the deadwood, then he's wagering 1BB to win 4+BB on Fourth, likely getting a free one on Fifth, and about 4:1 dog (by eye) if it gets heads-up on Fourth. If seat 2 has a pair less than Kings (and he will some of the time), hero is about 3:1 dog, maybe as good as 5:2 if the pair is dead. It isn't a huge moneymaker play, but hardly spew.

Hero has enough invested as a percentage of his stack that trying to win what's in there is worth a shot, and raising Fourth is less expensive than calling a half-bet on Fourth and a full bet on Fifth. It only gets bad if the Ace re-raises, and that's pretty bad, so folding is certainly less risky.

I think a raise is worth considering if the temper of the opponents implies (a) that it will be effective in getting some of them out of the pot, (b) you won't get re-popped by the Ace, and (c) you are likely to get a free card on Fifth. If none of those things apply, then yeah, screw it, get out.
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