[Sushiglutton]

There is a problem with the 'concept analysis' that is usually used in this forum and in poker books: The concepts are only qualitaive not quantitative.

By concepts I mean things like cleaning outs, getting a FC etc. U will often get into a dead ends in ur analysis because different concepts points towards different plays. There is no good way to compare.

It's often imposible to reach the correct conclussion by logical arguments only. You have to turn to math. Doing the math properly is also impossible so you need to make 'good enough' approximations.

I tried to make such an approximation. It's rough. For instance the ranges are very hard to estimate. I didn't include play after the flop so the FC aspect is not at all covered for. Still I feel that the analysis gives something in terms of the value of the raise.

I agreed with raising before doing the math. I too overestimated the value of the 'cleaning outs' concept. Now I feel reasonable certain that calling is the better play.

Obviously u can't make this math at the table. But the next time I get into a spot like this (highly coordnated board, passive villain donking) I will remember the analysis I did and call. Hopefully that will be the correct play.