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Old 11-20-2007, 05:34 PM
jeffnc jeffnc is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,631
Default Re: Live 20/40 Middle set, and lots of action...

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i'd stick with my 11 bet theory.

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Your "11 bet theory" is arbitrary and doesn't make any logical sense.

The whole point here is that if the guy doesn't have TT, then he could easily have one of several draws, or even a super draw or combo draw. In some cases, even if he has 8 high, he might think he has the best of it on the flop with 2 cards to come. He might even be doing the right thing to go on endlessly even if he assigns some certain percentage chance of a set to your range.

But he might be getting frisky with a simple flush draw or straight draw, thinking he's doing the right thing, or the right table image thing. Who knows?

No one knows, and that's why it doesn't make a lot of sense to come up with a specific number of bets here.

But for sure, if he keeps it up on the turn when no draw comes in, then we know he can't think he's betting a draw for value any more.

On the flop, keep variance in mind. If you care, go a little lower, if not go a little higher.
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