Re: A6s - turned top two
Thats a fold to me for a few reasons:
1.) You said he plays very cautiously, and he doesn't like to fold Aces. This isn't a folding aces situation, this is an overly aggressive, for him, situation. I think he's got better than AK,AQ, AJ, etc, because he would simply be calling you down here instead of re-raising you.
2.) He limp/called preflop OOP to the PFR (you). This usually says small pocket pair or suited connector (although suited connector UTG is not good poker, but its a possibility here). Those two possibilities put you right in that range for a monster here.
3.) His line is a classic donk, "I'm sly and I'm extracting as much value as a person with my limited skills can manage" line. The check/call on the flop followed by the check/re-raise on the turn is exactly how most of these people like to play their monsters. Anytime I see this line, I proceed VERY cautiously. Its basically the overused stack-a-donk line.
4.) If he wasn't sandbagging on the flop and the turn actually did make his hand, then its a made straight and I'm done.
5.) Look at the odds. There is $66 in the pot, and he had $14 behind. You have to assume the rest would go in, if needed on the river, its difficult to believe it wouldn't. Figure actual + Implied gives you $14 to win an additional $80 by seeing an additional card. That means you need to be win 17.5% of the time to win here. Figure that an additional A or 6 would be 4 more outs, or 8% (rules of 2 & 4). I need to make the additional 10% here to be break even, and I don't think you win enough, unimproved, to justify that 10%. But thats just my opinion.
Fold
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