[Hopey]

In the interest of getting this thread restarted...I posted this before they 'down-graded' the forums and lost all of posts that were made over the last 24 hours. It was saved in my clipboard:


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You guys are giving too much credit to Pittsburgh. Ottawa matches up extremely well against them -- probably better than every other opponent the Pens could have faced. Ottawa has a very similar team to Pittsburgh in many ways, but the Sens' depth will win them the series in the end.

Everyone talks about the scoring power of Pittsburgh, but the reality of the situation is that Ottawa scored 11 more goals that Pittsburgh did this year. Pittsburgh has Crosby, Recchi (who has been slumping since he got taken off of Crosby's line once Roberts arrived) and Malkin. Ottawa has Heatley, Spezza, and Alfredsson. If anything, Ottawa has a slight edge here, but it's close enough that we can call it a wash.

However, the ondoing for the Pens will be that they give up way too many goals. Of the teams who made the playoffs this season, the Pens gave up the second most goals (only Tampa Bay gave up more). Ottawa's defence isn't as strong as in previous years, but overall they're still superior to the Pens' blue-liners. Pittsburgh can score 4 or 5 goals and still end up losing 5-4 or 6-5 due to their inability to shut down Ottawa's attack.

As for goaltending, Emery hasn't been spectacular, but he's been solid. Fleury is going to be expected to stand on his head in order to keep the Pens in games. He might be able to do this for a game or two, but it's a rare goaltender who can do this for a whole series.

With home ice advantage, Ottawa will be able to trot out their top line against the Pens' 3rd and 4th lines. This will be a huge advantage in the first 2 games in Ottawa, and may end up deciding the series if it goes to game 7. Since the Sens' are much stronger defensively, being able to match up Crosby's line against Ottawa's 3rd and 4th lines (when the Pens have home ice) won't be as much of an advantage -- as Ottawa is strong defensively from top to bottom.

It'll be Ottawa in 6. It may only go 5 games if Ottawa wins the first two at home. It'll go 7 if Fleury is spectacular and Crosby carries the team on his shoulders, but I still think Ottawa will end up taking the series.

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