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Old 08-30-2007, 11:28 AM
McStinky McStinky is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 212
Default Re: how useful/novel would this software tool be?

Here is an example of using my tool. It is the turn and there is 1 in the pot, and your opponent bets 1. You have position on him. You need to decide whether to raise all in, or to call down. You have an overpair and it is a drawy board. You plug in the following parameters:

probability I am beat now = 0.25
my outs if I am beat = 2
his outs if I am ahead = 9
his outs that I will be able to get away from on river = 6
probability he will bluff if he misses = 0.4
his bluff size if he does bluff = 2
effective stack sizes = 4

EV of raising all in = 0.61
EV of calling down = 0.40

So in this case it is better to raise the turn. But now suppose you know he will always bluff if he misses. Then,

EV of raising all in = 0.61
EV of calling down = 1.12

So you should call him down with your overpair.
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