[JokersAttack]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a cash game, not a tournament. You don't surpass +EV spots except in very specific circumstances, this doesn't qualify. How does Doyle know he is going to get in a better spot against Jamie? This is live poker, meaning not many hands per hour, and there are 8 other people playing, all just as likely to get Jamie's money. If the third nuts isn't good enough then you're putting Jamie presicely on the second or complete nuts, meaning that in the future you're going to wait until you get the nuts vs Jamie's second nuts? That's extremely unlikely to happen. How often have we even seen big nuts vs second nuts hands overall during HSP? Now what are the odds that happens with two specific players?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is simply not true. Why pay someone off that you read for having a better hand, just because you happen to have the third nuts.

Jamie bluffs alot, and Doyle has a good read on Jamie. Why play a pot with him when you're getting ultra high confidence tells from him and may genuinly believe it is likely that he is holding a winning hand, when you can wait for him to bluff off money or simply wait for a spot when you read him for a hand but not for one that beats yours.

Also, the fact that it is a cash game and not a tournament also means that Doyle should be in no rush to get into a 1 million dollar pot against a chronic bluffer. I have no doubt if Doyle thought he was ahead the majority of the time there, he would have called.

And we don't know for sure he has multiple bullets available. We heard PH say that the players don't like carrying huge amounts of money around (which is why PH was playing behind). Whilst this may not apply as much to Doyle, it is possible that he may have only had the 1 bullet (or 2) available at the time and given how popular the show rated to be, didn't want to bust in an extremely thin EV situation so early into the game.

and JDesab > I don't think Jamie wanted Doyle to fold, he was jamming what he thought to be the winning hand whilst trying to disguise it as a bluff.

Also, I don't think there's much basis to say that Jamie's play would change if was holding the nuts or second nuts. I don't think he was trying to price out a draw so much as to simply get paid off. And if Jamie did put Doyle on the Qs, since he just made a pot+ sized bet, wouldn't it be a better idea to just call and try and induce a river bluff? Or raise more thinly for value rather than make a bet that he can't call?

Also, the only hand that includes the Qs that bets that flop like Doyle did is the AxQs. And would Doyle really bet the turn like that with that hand? He might, since he is good at blending his range and disguising his hand strength. However, I think Doyle raises preflop with this hand, esp in late pos, which he did't do.