Re: Hiding a Recession
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Hmm an alternative to the hiding hypothesis is that there has been massive inflation shown by reliable metrics.
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Oh, yes. I agree 100%. It's just that the inflation is showing up everywhere EXCEPT the CPI. I'm not saying that it is ONLY manipulation of economic data that is hiding monetary expansion.
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Look at the housing market for example. This has inflated alot in the USA (till recently). Not saying that CPI isnt fudged to a high degree, just that it isnt a case of omfg where is all the new money going why aint it showing up on the radar. It went into assets etc of which housing would be a prime example,that definitely showed up on the radar.
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Of course. This is what I've been saying all along. But that is, in fact, "hidden" from consumers, who are mainly interested in consumer prices. In fact, they think that a bubble in their stock portfolio or the value of their home is a good thing, at least until the bubble bursts.
Price inflation is also offset by productivity increases in certain sectors (see for example consumer electronics), and monetary inflation is also hidden offshore as foreign held dollar reserves, which also reduces pressure on the CPI, at least until that bubble bursts, which is now occuring.
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