Re: on ROI
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Yeah, you're very wrong on this and so is your book. You can bet line movements for this and higher.
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Please give me an example.
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Umm... Work back through the Pinny expected loss per dollar for the avg high volume arbitrageur. The long run is fairly quick with this. Avg negative ROI there is around 3.6 to 3.9 which implies at worst a corresponding positive ROI of at least this level at other books. If you throw in any actual bonus dollars (which I'm sure you are excluding and as I am for pure ROI discussion) you can quickly earn a fairly nice living. The swings are much greater, but I'm sure you can manage to get several nice plays per day at a decent Kelly stake with a mid five figure to low six figure bankroll and a small amount of talent.
There is really no reason to handicap games if you're going to earn such a small ROI, there are many people who are able to beat openers for double digit ROIs. There is really little reason to spend hours and hours analyzing information for an edge smaller than you can get just staring at a monitor.
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