[Sherman]

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Definitely not crazy about your example for several reasons (way too small a sample size for the stats to be very useful, SB's stats indicate he's not really a "thinking" player, and it's a turbo so people generally play looser and there's less time for a thinking player to peg *you* for a thinking player since the action is faster), but otherwise nice post.

However, you need to be careful to do this only vs. *thinking*, observant opponents, which aren't easy to come by in small buy-in MTTs. Overall, I'm still not entirely convinced it's overwhelmingly +EV to do this with trash, though, since you'll generally need to call those times the nitty BB shoves.

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Proof,

As I said in the OP, the example hand here isn't perfect. I have way way way many more examples, but I'd have to look through a bunch of HHs to find them. To be honest, it isn't worth that much effort.

This isn't a play that is going to make you $ over-night. In fact, this play isn't even used that often. I'd guess that I use it less than once per MTT.

FWIW, when I said XX as the typical raising hand to steal with here, I am NOT talking about ATC. I always make sure I have something that plays marginally well in FO calculations.

Quantitatively, I want something that is like 33% against the BB's shoving range. In this example hand, T5o is one of the worst hands I make this move with. I'm not doing it with T4o here. Although I would with 97o. I'd pretty much avoid all X2s and X3s unless they are Aces or Kings (maybe suited Queens). But I am never making this move with something like 42o. I want a hand that has some equity against his shoving range...maybe around 33%.

Sherman


Edit: BTW, I made a post a long time ago about small sample sizes and stats. TBH, I think you are dead wrong if you say these sample sizes are too small to be useful. In the case of this hand, the BB is ~2.5 times more likely to have a true VPIP of 10 than of 20, ~7.5 times more likely to have a true VPIP of 10 than 30, and ~2.9 times more likely to have a true VPIP of 20 than 30. I'll try to search for and bump that old post.