[jws43yale]

I always find it interesting when everyone is short the dollar. I have been short for nearly a year now and I am not looking to build my position or anything. Very seldomly has every bit of the media been clamoring the same thing and it to happen as said. I highly doubt that any "crash" or "recession" will live up to current expectations. Eveyone thinks the sup-prime crisis is such a huge issue, but in reality it is only a small part of the housing market.

Although in the last couple of years over 10% of mortagages were subprice, out of all US mortgages, approximately 2% are subprime. Out of these, only approx. 13% have defaulted. So the total mortgage defaults in the US is well under 0.5%. Yes this does hurt some and the issues the banks are having with CDO's and MBS's hurts more, but this in not some catastrophic financial event.

To be honest, I am not buying back dollars or unwinding my other trades in foreign markets or commodities, but I begin to reevaluate when every market pundit is saying to make these exact trades. I recently saw a Jay-Z video where he throws Euro's in the air instead of dollars. Typically when this type of thing hits mainstream culture (e.g. the Grandma buying tech stocks) it probably is not as attractive as everyone is convinced it is.