[The once and future king]

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That's right,except "everyone" doesn't already know the dollar is going to get weaker. People routinely underestimate how bad things are going to get, and come to believe that the worst is already past. But, they often don't understand that things can continue to get worse for quite a bit longer than they thought.

Things can get quite a bit worse for the dollar, because the economy in the US will likely get quite a bit worse over the next several years. I'm not saying the dollar will keep going down, but I don't think the dollar is pricing in everything that can wrong by a long shot. There are too many reasons to not buy the dollar and buy other higher yielding currencies.

[/ QUOTE ] But there is no real economic evidence in this post.

The only evidence apparent to me is that imports are flat while output and exports are skyrocketing. Europe can hardly afford to import lots of goods into the US anymore, nor compete with US imports into their domestic markets. Companies that ignore this are being censured strongly by the business press for missing out on staggering cost savings.

If nothing else we have far and away the best freight infrastructure on Earth (every other country is completely lol except a couple in Asia) and an extremely well educated and skilled workforce. And we a like to be paid in dollars. And that's not going to change any time soon.

Please explain to me how American labor productivity has collapsed in the last few months and maybe I'll heed your conclusions. The fact that people routinely underestimate problems is just as irrelevant as the fact that people routinely overestimate problems, unless you have some basis that the whole market (not just some people) are underestimating the problem.

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Yea, but the problem with the dollar are inherent to the dollar itself not the economy in which it is used as an exchange.

In essence (it is of course more complex than this) the dollar is cheap because there is an over supply of dollars.

If foreign governments decide to release their reserves of dollars this supply will increase thus driving the price down even further.