[cero_z]

Hi,

This thread may be played out by now (holy War And Peace-length answers, Bobbo!), but Bobbo asked me to respond with my thoughts, so here they are. I think this is a nice quiz, especially given that as I skimmed the thread, a lot of people seemed to get it wrong (IMO).

Hands 1 and 3 are similar on the turn. We are getting immediate odds of ~3:1 on 4:1 or 5:1 shots, with another 3 or 4 times the amount of the bet we face remaining in the bettor's stack, with us in position. These are incredibly easy calls, and I think any other play is wrong in most real-life situations. We need to get a bet of 1-2 times the turn bet called when we win, on average, to break even. This will happen easily, in my experience. Often times, the bettor will put the money in for us, but either way, signs point to decent hands for the Villains in both cases (probable Ace+ in hand 1, probable medium overpair or set in hand 3), and guys don't get away from those for 1/2 pot bets in SSNL (or anywhere, for the most part). So, call the turn bet in hands 1 and 3, and it's not close.

Hand 2 is the only place where I disagree with Bobbo's play up to the main decision. I think that in most cases, c-betting the JTx flop there is wrong. It would be very clearly wrong if we were in position, thus having the option to take a free card, but OOP I believe it's still a mistake. You will RARELY get this pot with a bet of any size less than or equal to pot; if I had to put a number on it vs. the opponent described, I'd say maybe 20% if you bet 2/3 pot or more. Much of the time that you don't win, you will get raised, by a real hand protecting its equity on a draw-heavy board, or by one of the countless semi-bluffs available. Whether you're tight or loose, they will put you on AK, and you WILL get messed with on this flop. So, obviously in my estimation, this bet loses money as a straight steal.

That doesn't mean I just give up when I see the flop, though. It could be that checkraising this flop every time here vs. a player who "defends his button religiously" is a winning play; these guys tend to be predictable move-makers. Of course, your default play here if you check and your opponent bets should be to fold. Regardless, I think you do a lot better overall here by checking and seeing what happens. If your opponent checks behind at these stakes, he rarely has a Jack or better, or an open-ended draw. You can take the pot quite often on the turn, and if you hit a pair, it's likely to be good.

The question of what to do if we get reraised pre is impossible to answer given the info provided (since we only know he doesn't like to FOLD his button; we have no idea what his reraising range looks like). What I know is, I raised UTG and this guy reraised me; my AQo is very likely to be dominated or in pretty bad shape. I fold if reraised to 25 in a 200NL game.

Finally, I want to comment on this quote:

[ QUOTE ]
This is somewhat of a "secret" of mine, but I never call one street and fold the next with a made hand. I make a decision on the turn and carry through on the river, although every now and then I make a bet size read and make a weird laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to do this, too, and it's a serious leak. Not only in the sense that it's exploitable, which you addressed, but more that it fails to exploit some tendencies that are very common in opponents, especially in less-aggro games like SSNL. Specifically, there are so many players who'll bet once with either a bluff or a marginal made hand, and then give up on the pot if called. Calling to see what they do after that is the best way to deal with them. If you have a good but not great made hand, you can comfortably fold to the 2nd barrel from many, many 200NL players.

It's less important to do this OOP, and maybe that's what you meant, but either way, I think this should be a substantial part of your arsenal. Bobbo, that may sound funny coming from me, since you know I'm not a fan of floating, but I've definitely come around to that tactic, as well, and try to use it in moderation. Anyway, that's all I got. Nice thread.