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Old 10-25-2007, 06:09 PM
Wish Wish is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 105
Default Re: live £50 MTT made a move, flopepd a monster but ugly turn?

So, what are you behind that he could reasonably limp/call with preflop? Only 76, 99, 77, and 66. That's a small part of his range. You're crushing every other pocket pair from 22 to AA, ahead of suited/unsuited connectors and two gappers, except for 76 as noted (can you really put him on 96 here). Most Ax, Kx hands are drawing dead, the remainder to only a few outs. Pot is over around 12k, and you've got 10k effective stacks. But, there's one thing, ssnyc that makes those monsters under the bed maybe a little more realisic. He check-minraised the flop. That just screams of strength, and if he's not holding T8, that strength is either a set or overpair. Can hero read the minraise to narrow villains range to 66+, elminating all Ax hands? (Every pair 66+ is either a set, overpair, or second pair with straight draw.) Even if you can narrow the range that much, I think you're ahead of the range. You're drawing dead against 66, 77, 99, but you've got 88 and TT drawing to 4 outs to win + 3 to tie. You've got JJ+ drawing to 4 outs with one to come (9%). So, if you weight all of those hands as equally likely, I think you're in good shape.

In the end, I don't think the probability that villain has turned a boat is high enough to do avoid getting all the chips in the middle during this hand.
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