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Old 11-01-2007, 04:31 AM
Ps3tn0NcYk Ps3tn0NcYk is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 99
Default Re: possible trading strategy?

You might reconstruct your theory as follows:

During the period where most companies release earnings, the market is historically more volatile.

The stocks of individual companies also tend to be more volatile around their earnings release.

Therefore buy the volatility of stocks before they release their earnings (using a option straddle, for instance) and sell the position the next day.

Keep doing this over and over and you should outperform the S&P 500???

My experience tells me that the answer to this question is: no, it is unlikely that you will outperform even treasury notes using this strategy when accounting for transaction costs and slippage.

In fact I would not be surprised to learn that selling volatility ahead of a earnings release outperforms buying volatility -- particularly for widely owned companies with a significant deviation in earnings expectations among a population of credible analysts.
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