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Old 09-21-2005, 02:43 PM
Iconoclastic Iconoclastic is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 1,117
Default Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River

I'm happy to see that the original Hero took the same line I would have preflop and on the Flop AND on the Turn...anyways lol

My original range for CO was [JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-A3o,KTo+,QJo,JTo]

After checking the F and betting the T his range was narrowed to [TT-99, 33, A3s, A9s, ATs, AQs, AJs, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A3o, A9o, ATo, AQo, AJo, AKo, KTo+, QJo, JTo]. After calling the Turn reraise that range has been narrowed to [TT, 99, KJo/s, T9s, 33]. I'm going mostly on the read that CO is Tight and usually Tight players don't call 2:1 odds with just one pair and a OESD out of position. Now the hands that could fold to a Push include T9s and 33, and the other random hands below that strength that CO could have gone this far with. That comes out to a Fold 33% of the time. 66% of the time you're going to lose if you Push.

At least the raise on the Turn knocked MJ out of the hand so we don't have to worry about him anymore...

Now the pot is 10k, and I have 7k with the Villain covering me. If the CO:
Calls: -7000 (66%)= -4620
Folds: +10,000 (33%)= +3333

Conclusion: (Bill Walton voice) "Check it down, big man, check it down."

BTW it's perfectly reasonable for CO to have checked the nuts or the near nuts on the River. Some players are weak-tight and others (Doug Lee on TV comes to mind) check the River after being raised on the Turn with the nuts in hopes of a check-raise. Not a good play, but it happens.
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