[CardSharpCook]

Well, the nice thing about raising such a small amount on the turn is that it makes it look like we already have a made hand. At this point, the stack sizes work in our favor. A bet of 4K or 5K would be standard nut peddling, but it would be very awkward to bet 5K and leave 2K behind. So going AI is a more attractive option. After putting 4600 in this pot, CO is still happy with his 20K. Taking a 7k hit here isn't going to make him happy if he holds K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I think we have 100% FE over all hands of 2nd button or less. How about Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? Can he call if you push? Yes, but he'll only do so 20% of the time. I estimate 80% FE over TP?K. Now we get into the danger hands - two pair or better. I think our FE drops to 60% vs. Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. He still lays this down quite often, but he is aware of the bluff possibility. We even have FE over trips. CO's range for our hand should be 99,TT,KJ, or a bluff (if we AI the river). Other hands that we can reasonably hold just don't bet here. AQ, KQ both check behind. So, unless he is just calling our bluff, CO should fold 33 here. Will he? Not as often as he should, and given other trip possibilities, I estimate FE over trips to be about 20%.

So, the problem here is that the CO knows we need the str8 or slow-played trips to be able to bet here. Other bets don't make sense (just check behind). The question is, will he call our bluff? Given the strong way we played the turn (a raise to 4K from 1500 instead of raising more) I think he will fold. In fact, I'm willing to "risk my tourney life" on it.

PULL THE TRIGGER!!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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