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Poker players might be a little more flexible, like:

god existing: 1000000000-1

earth being 6000 years old: 10000000000000000000-1

globe is not warming significantly: 25-1

man doesn't significantly contribute to warming: 5-1

and then a poker player should still be able to act on something that they aren't 100% sure about.

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yeah those sound about right, re: global warming, I believe the only CO2 graphs I've seen are from the last 400k years, and there hasn't been a spike this big in that timeframe, but the Earth is ~4.5billion yrs old, why can't it just be a once every 10million yr type spike(if this has been discredited I'd like to see it)