[Praxising]

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The thing is, he has like 1.2bb left when he bets 5th. So I am going to have to put in 2.2bb to win 6bb if my math is right. That's That's really the only thing that says to me, I'm gonna see a river on this one. I think realistically I'm only a 65:35 dog here! I'm getting like 2:1 to call down.

If he has the worst case scenario (A2, or 25, A4 etc, i.e. a 4 card 6, no pair) I'm a 2:1 dog. If he DEFINITELY has one of these, it's neutral EV to call down or fold. If he could have paired, if he could have a 7 or 8 in the hole, or even a 9, I think I'm good. There are a lot of hands he could legitimately have here where I'm only a 60:40 dog.

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This is from the latest FT "tip" by Ivey:
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Calculating the odds can certainly help you decide whether you’re making a smart move, but it doesn’t take into account who you’re playing against. There are many times when you can do all of the math you want and your decision still comes down to intangibles and a feeling about your opponent or the situation you’re facing. Does this guy have a hand? Can I push him off the pot? Am I getting myself into trouble here? Even if the odds say you should play, your gut may be telling you something else, and that’s something you can only develop by playing.

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The way I see it, a tournament is a closed system. While making mathematically "correct" calls that will pay off in some future when you have played enough hands might make sense generally, if they pay off when you are playing a cash game long after you've lost the tournament, then using that system to make tournament decisions is not as reasonable as it seems to be.

I ask myself these questions: 1 - no matter how short the guy is - do I want to make him any richer? 2 - how good was this hand on 3rd? 3 - how do I feel about it now? 4 - do I have any good reason to call or am I just talking myself into something? 4 - am I protecting my stack?

I look at my HHs and justify bad calls all the time. For about ten seconds until I remember how much denial costs me in real money. I need real money. I might call this in a cash game, possibly. Not in a trny.

My question is - when you saw the 4, just instinctively, what did you feel you should do?

Remember the Prime Sklansky Directive: folding makes you money. Folding is profit.