[sweetjazz]

Rob, I don't remember over how many hands you had developed your read on this player (you were playing this table before the video started I presume).

The problem I have is that players at low limits when I was roading it to robustoness did lots of strange erratic things, even players that otherwise seemed decent or better. There were few players who you could put on a definite, narrow range of hands where you'd be right 7 out of 8 times. I'll admit that evolutionary forces have likely come into play since that time, and the more erratic players have likely been thinned out of the games to a certain extent by frequent losing.

I do see how it could be a thin fold against some players, especially in a live game (where paradoxically one has a smaller sample size to base their read on, but there are so many other observations that can reinforce a read based on betting patterns). I'd need more than he usually does c/c, c/c b his top pair hands to fold here. First, I need to know he has little to no chance to have made some bad peels with Q high or K high and decided to make a desparation bluff to knock out A highs; second, I need to have a good reason he'd neither check/raise a flush draw nor check/raise a made flush on the river. Sure I might feel like he might not do these things and if it were a no limit hand where his c/c's narrowed his range significantly (so that flush draws were a much larger part of his range after a turn call), betting out with a flush on the river made more sense, and the odds I was getting were something like 2:1, then it would be a trivially easy fold.

I'd be curious if you were willing to go back and post some (all if there aren't too many) of the past hands you had played against him at that point where he showed his hand and see what kind of read we could collectively come up with in hindsight. I'd also be interested in trying to esimate our equity given that read. With my limited read of casually watching your video in the background while I was doing other things, I'd put your equity at about 20-25% when he donks that river. Whereas if spourgitis had been the one donking, I'd put your equity at about 80-85% and expect you won't get 3bet unless he has Ah xh. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]