[Post-Oak]

You guys bring up some good points. I was aware that I wasn't able to calculate the exact % chance of succes given my assumptions plus an assumed standard deviation, because I wouldn't know how to do the math. In other words, I wasn't sure how much of an effect the variance would have over the 5 hour period.

So the point that he can quit anytime he hits the $400 is mark is well taken. The idea that he can up his variance in case of emergency (time running out or he's down big) is also a good one.

However, I still disagree that it can be done with your "eyes closed".

I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.