[iggymcfly]

Not that Nevada losing is a "positive". Just that it's a lot smaller negative than people think as the effects of the extra rest and motivation counteract the evidence that Nevada's just not that good. And if the Wolfpack hadn't lost that game, they'd probably be a 4 seed somewhere and would be favored by more than 1 against Creighton on a neutral floor.

What's Creighton done this year other than win their conference tourney anyway? Going into the tourney, they were 19-10 with losses to Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno State, Hawaii, Indiana State, and Illinois State. Those are some bad losses. Part of my point about the conference tournaments is that as the last games the betting public sees before the NCAAs, they tend to overadjust for them and give the team that wins them too much credit. Creighton's overall resume just isn't that good.

And even though Creighton's run doesn't compare with Syracuse or Maryland's conference tournament runs of recent years, they did have to pull an upset over SIU just to make the NCAAs, so there's a distinct possibility that they won't put full effort into preparing for Nevada. That's where the difference comes in for the 1st round games; the team that's already won their "Super Bowl" doesn't give the same focus in the film room as the team that's desperate to prove their conference tournament loss was a fluke.