Re: ***yankees official offseason thread*****
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Swapping A-Rod for Betemit in 2007 would be enough to drop the Yankees to the range of Boston/Detroit.
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OK. This is not taking into factor any of the players on the Red Sox or Tigers (or other teams), and their regression/progression.
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And if in addition Posada had hit like a typical catcher (well below 100 OPS+) the Yankees offense would have probably been barely above average.
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But he didn't. You can do this for any player, but it doesn't make much sense.
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It does make sense if you are responding to someone who thinks the Yankees don't need Posada or A-Rod to field a top offense.
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Posada is almost certain to decline substantially
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I'm presuming you are basing this on the normal catcher's regression with age.
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Nope, I'm basing it on the fact that Posada has a career OPS+ of 126, which includes the boost it got from last years 170. 36 year olds coming off by far their career best years aren't likely to come close to that again. Esp. if they are catchers. Torre was the manager when Posada put up a 127 OPS+ at age 34, and when he put up a 105 at age 33.
As far as aging risks, you also have to consider that other teams have young talent that's going to improve. Boston and Detroit may decline along with the Yanks, but that likely means other teams will rise up to take their place.
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