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Old 11-30-2007, 10:17 AM
patrick10 patrick10 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 239
Default Re: 20nl FLOP Decision

ok well i am feeling really nice and will try to help you more.

But in future please post hands ACCORDING TO THE GUIDE if you can. You need to give all the relevant information- and understanding that stack size is VITAL to this hand and many others IS ENTIRELY TOTALLY CRITICAL to you becoming a decent player. for all WE know, villains 'All-in' might only be 1 more BB to you ...

OK.
villains range. He is a loose donk by the sounds of it. This means that he is more likely to play weak dominated hands than SC like a smart player. So here is approximately the TOP 18% of his hands which he raises with....

66+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QJo

I can't really discriminate between his raising hands and the ahnds he raises AND calls a 3-BET with because he is a loose donk. so here we go -

Board: Th 3d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.262% 48.25% 03.01% 1030404 64257.00 { 66+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 48.738% 45.73% 03.01% 976512 64257.00 { AQo }



You are a dog and should thus FOLD. I can give 3 main reasons beyond the maths.

1) he is donkalicious and plays alot more hands likely to have hit this flop than a TAG who played the hand the same way.

2) If he indeed calls 3 bets with Ace rags (A2-AT/AJ), you may be drawing very badly to queens, as aces may not help

3) probably most important actually... His range of hands which calls 3 bets 'should' be significanlty better than his 53% range of TRASH he usually plays. Furthermore, even against alot of draws, you are slim favourite to slight dog anyway so i think its an easy fold if the push was indeed of a significant size
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