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Old 06-07-2007, 04:27 AM
JavaNut JavaNut is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Permanent downswing
Posts: 471
Default Re: Tourney situation. Omaha version of classic Holdem AA question

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The villian is a major insane donk. He has blown chips on top pair and other horrible hands several times while i have been sitting here. His raises are meaningless. Big stacks in this tourney do garbage raises all the time preflop, and in last 10 hands he blew 20k plus in chips.

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Given this read on your opponent and the fact that you only need to get to #18 to move up in prizes, you are risking $33 to win $60+ and being in good position to win even more with somedthing that looks at least 75/25 in your favor (not the hand which is good but not a monster, but the hand combined with the fact your opponent seems to be tilting heavily). Push.

Against a player who has been playing solidly and sound over the last hands, you have not got first in vigor, which is important in tourneys, if you raise back at him you risk more than you win by folding him, then you'll need to be 75/25 (or 70/30 or thereabouts) to win against a good solid range of hands, which you are not quite with AAds.

Against a short stack, that will not prevent you from folding into the money if you lose this hand, again push as you are not risking the $33.
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